As the price of Ethereum plummeted by 22% in the past week, pessimism in the market continued to spread. “Quit”, vice president of blockchain business at Yuga Labs, expressed his views on social media X on March 11, warning that if the crypto market enters a “real bear market cycle”, the price of Ethereum may fall 90% from the current level, reaching a minimum of $200. This forecast is far lower than the $1,500 support level generally expected by analysts. Quit emphasized that historical bear markets are usually accompanied by a drop of 80%-90%, and suggested that investors with insufficient psychological tolerance should sell their positions in time.
Ethereum holders’ differences on price trends have intensified. Some investors agree with Quit’s pessimistic logic, believing that if Bitcoin falls to $66,000, the price of Ethereum may further drop to $1,200. However, opponents point out that the current Ethereum ecosystem has been supported by institutional funds and the technology application has matured. Unless there is a systemic collapse similar to 2018, it will be difficult to reproduce the historic plunge. A community user concluded: “Wise investors should plan for both scenarios at the same time, but being overly bearish too early may cost as much as blind optimism.”
At the same time, the sharp fluctuations in Ethereum prices are forcing whale users to take emergency measures. According to CoinGecko data, the price of Ethereum fell to $1,791 on March 11, hitting a seven-day low. Blockchain analysis company Lookonchain has detected that multiple whale accounts have transferred assets on a large scale to avoid liquidation risks: an address sold $47.8 million in ETH but still faces a liquidation crisis of $64.3 million in positions, and another investor holding $121 million triggered automatic liquidation because the Ether price fell below $1,800. Even an address suspected to be associated with the Ethereum Foundation pledged 30,000 ETH to reduce the liquidation line to $1,127, although subsequent investigations clarified that the account had nothing to do with the foundation.
The current market long-short game has entered a white-hot stage, and every fluctuation in the Ether price affects the nerves of holders. Although some investors believe that Ethereum’s fundamentals are no longer what they used to be, the shadow of historical cycles and the risk-averse actions of whales still cast a cloud of uncertainty over the market. As Quit said, if this bear market has just begun, the extreme target of $200 may become the ultimate stress test for all participants.
