As the cryptocurrency market has become more volatile recently, XRP price movements have once again become the focus of investors. After falling to a staged low of $1.89 on March 11, XRP prices once rebounded to around $2.50, but failed to break through the key resistance area above. At present, XRP prices are hovering in a narrow range of $2.20 to $2.35, and the game between bulls and bears around technical support and market sentiment is entering a white-hot stage. If bulls can hold the $2.20 support level, XRP prices may continue to recover; on the contrary, once this line of defense is lost, the market may face a new round of selling pressure and may even retest the low of $1.90.
Bearish Sentiment: Funding Rates and Open Interest Raise Alarms
The sustainability of XRP’s recent price rebound is being severely tested by derivatives market data. According to Glassnode, the funding rate for XRP perpetual contracts remains below 0%, indicating that short sellers are dominating the market. A negative funding rate means that short sellers are paying long holders, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the short term. Meanwhile, XRP’s open interest (OI) in the futures market has plummeted from a peak of 5.67billiononJanuary17to2.4 billion as of March 18, a drop of over 57%. The sharp decline in open interest not only suggests that traders are exiting the market but also weakens the liquidity needed to sustain an upward trend in XRP price.
Historically, assets with declining funding rates and open interest struggle to withstand selling pressure. For XRP, this means that even a slight drop in price could trigger a cascade of liquidations, especially if leveraged positions are forced to close. If institutional or retail investors do not re-enter the market soon, the downside risk for XRP price could increase significantly.
Technical Warning: Inverted V Pattern and Key Support Battle
On the four-hour chart, XRP price has formed a classic “inverted V” pattern during its rebound in early March. This pattern typically appears when prices rise rapidly to a peak and then fall sharply, indicating that bullish momentum has been exhausted. Currently, XRP faces strong resistance in the 2.35to2.42 range, which coincides with the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, creating a “high-pressure zone” for further upward movement. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below the 50 midline, further confirming the bears’ dominance in the short term.
If XRP prices fail to hold the 50-day moving average support of $2.20, the next target may point to the “neckline” position of $2.01. Once this position is lost, the low of $1.89 on March 11 may become a new target for bears. However, if the bulls can successfully defend the $2.20 line and break through the $2.42 resistance zone, XRP prices are expected to reverse their decline and re-challenge the recent high of $2.47.
Analyst Divide: Pessimistic Reality vs. Optimistic Expectations
Despite the bearish signals from technical indicators and derivatives data, some analysts remain optimistic about XRP’s long-term potential. Prominent cryptocurrency analyst Dark Defender stated in a March 17 tweet that XRP has completed its “primary correction on the weekly, daily, and four-hour frames” and has entered “Wave 1 with a target of 5.85.”Heemphasizedthatthe2.22 support level and $3.39 resistance level will be key areas to watch in the coming weeks, adding that “the upcoming weeks will be fantastic.”
However, this optimistic outlook requires support from real-world data. The current rebound in XRP price is still constrained by overall market liquidity and regulatory uncertainties. For example, while the U.S. Treasury’s inclusion of XRP in its digital asset stockpile has sparked discussions, the token’s unclear utility remains a core factor limiting its price potential.
Conclusion: XRP Price at a Crossroads
On the whole, XRP prices are at a critical node for the conversion of long and short forces. The cautious sentiment in the derivatives market resonates with the technical pullback pressure, while the optimistic predictions of analysts have injected a glimmer of hope into the market. Investors need to pay close attention to the effectiveness of the $2.20 support level, as well as the changing trends of funding rates and open contracts. If the XRP price can successfully bottom out at this position and attract incremental funds to enter the market, the rebound in the short term may continue; otherwise, the market may once again witness a severe test at the $1.90 mark. In this game, risk management and position control are still the primary strategies for dealing with drastic fluctuations.
