The cryptocurrency market has been experiencing continuous fluctuations recently, with the price movement of XRP becoming a focal point for investors. Since early March, the XRP price has retreated from its high of 3,droppingtoalowof1.94 before rebounding to around 2.19.The outcome of this battle could determine whether the XRP price will further test the $1.61 support level or even trigger a broader sell-off.
From a technical perspective, the short-term trend of the XRP price has entered a sensitive phase. According to the XRP/USD daily chart released by Cointelegraph and TradingView, the correction that began on March 3 caused the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to drop sharply from the overbought zone to 42, indicating that market momentum is gradually tilting toward the bears. If the XRP price fails to reclaim the resistance zone between 2.53and2.62 (corresponding to the 100-day and 50-day simple moving averages) in the short term, it may face further downward pressure. Analysts point out that the key support level is currently at the psychological 2mark,which formed on February 3 and eventually test the 200-day moving average support at $1.61.
The divergence in market sentiment is particularly evident in the tug-of-war between bulls and bears over the XRP price. Although the XRP price briefly broke through quickly ended the upward momentum. CoinGlass’s liquidation heatmap shows a large cluster of buy orders around 2,whichmayprovideshort−termsupportfortheXRPprice.However,theMACDindicatorontheweeklycharthasformedadeathcross,suggestingthatthemedium−tolong−termtrendmaybeturningbearish.IftheXRPpricefailstoholdtheweeklysupportlevelat2.16 (corresponding to the upper boundary of the rising flag pattern), it could fall back into the confines of the flag and continue consolidating for several more weeks, potentially even dropping to the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $1.46.
It is worth noting that changes in external policy environments are exacerbating the uncertainty surrounding the XRP price. The U.S. Treasury Department recently announced its “Digital Asset Strategic Reserve” plan, which explicitly states that it will gradually sell some of its holdings. This news has shaken market confidence. Although the plan does not specifically mention XRP, investors are concerned that the overall regulatory stance toward crypto assets may indirectly suppress the XRP price’s rebound potential. Additionally, the resonance between technical and fundamental factors cannot be ignored—if the XRP price remains under pressure, market sensitivity to the progress of the “Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit” may intensify again, amplifying short-term volatility.
For the bulls, the key to reversing the downtrend lies in regaining control of key moving averages. If the XRP price can effectively break through the 50-day moving average resistance at 2.62,itmayrestartitsupwardmomentumtoward3 or even the seven-year high of $3.40. However, this path requires a significant increase in trading volume, and current market activity has not yet shown sufficient bullish signals. In terms of derivatives data, perpetual contract funding rates remain neutral, and open interest has not shown extreme skewness, indicating that investors are still waiting for clearer directional signals.
In the long term, the XRP price trend remains closely tied to the broader market environment. The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, changes in Bitcoin ETF fund flows, and geopolitical risks could all influence the XRP price through market sentiment. Technical analysts warn that if the $2 support level is ultimately breached, the XRP price could enter a “panic selling” mode, especially if algorithmic trading programs trigger cascading stop-loss orders, potentially accelerating the decline beyond expectations. Therefore, investors need to closely monitor the dynamic relationship between daily closing prices and key moving averages while remaining vigilant against sudden news-driven market movements.
Despite the heightened short-term risks, some institutions remain cautiously optimistic about the medium- to long-term prospects of the XRP price. Ripple’s recent expansion of partnerships in cross-border payments and the implementation of its Ripple Liquidity Hub are seen as potential drivers of real demand for XRP in the future. However, whether these fundamental positives can translate into price support will depend on the recovery of overall market risk appetite.
In summary, the XRP price is at a critical juncture, facing dual tests from both technical and fundamental perspectives. The battle over the $2 level is not just a contest between bulls and bears but also a crucial litmus test for market confidence. Investors should prepare risk management plans and avoid excessive leverage until the trend becomes clearer. As a seasoned trader once said, “In the crypto market, survival is more important than profit—and the current XRP price is teaching us how to respect the market.”
