As the cryptocurrency market becomes more volatile, XRP prices have continued to be under pressure recently. On March 10, XRP’s daily chart closed at its lowest point in 99 days, falling below the psychological barrier of $2. Although it rebounded briefly by 12% the next day, multi-dimensional market indicators showed that its downside risks have not been eliminated. The current XRP price has retreated 37.1% from its historical high of $3.40. If the key support is breached, it may further drop to the $1.60 range in the future.
From the perspective of the derivatives market, the demand for XRP’s spot and perpetual contracts is shrinking simultaneously. According to aggr.trade data, XRP spot cumulative volume difference (CVD) dropped 50% in March, and the current CVD value is -408 million US dollars, reflecting that sellers continue to dominate the market. At the same time, the perpetual contract CVD also fell to -1.18 billion on March 11, and the funding rate turned deeply negative, indicating a significant increase in short positions. The bearish sentiment in the futures market resonates with the weakness in XRP prices. If buying fails to enter the market in time, the short-term rebound may be unsustainable.
Whale selling has become another heavy pressure on XRP prices. CryptoQuant data shows that between March 4 and 10, large holders sold off a total of approximately $838 million worth of XRP, and the whale outflow shown by the 30-day moving average continued to rise. This “distribution phase” usually occurs at the end of a price rally, when large holders lock in profits by selling in batches, putting pressure on market liquidity. The analysis pointed out that if the whale selling trend continues, the XRP price may accelerate out of the current fluctuation range.
The technical side also sends negative signals. The price of XRP closed below $2.05 on March 11, confirming the break of the neckline of the daily “head and shoulders” pattern. This classic bearish structure suggests that if prices fail to re-enter $2.05 support, downside targets will be the Fibonacci retracement “golden range” of $1.90 to $1.60. It is worth noting that $1.60 is close to the long-term demand zone ($1.58-1.27). If market sentiment deteriorates further, the XRP price may fall sharply to test the bottom support.
On the whole, the three factors of derivative fund flows, whale movements and technical patterns jointly exerted pressure, and the price of XRP faced severe tests in March. Although a short-term rebound may ease the decline, if key support levels are breached one after another, the market may need to prepare for larger price adjustments.
