As Bitcoin prices gradually stabilize after the shock at the beginning of the year, market analysts are reassessing their short-term potential. Timothy Peterson, an online economist, recently released a forecast that if the historical cycle repeats itself, Bitcoin prices are expected to break through the all-time high before June, with a target of $126,000. This view is based on the “Lowest Price Forward” model he developed, which accurately predicted that Bitcoin prices would not fall below $10,000 after March 2020. Current data suggests that $69,000 may become a solid support level for the new cycle, with a holding probability of up to 95%.
In an analysis published on March 15, Peterson pointed out that Bitcoin prices are currently at the low end of the historical seasonal range, and April and October are usually its strongest months. He emphasized: “Almost all of Bitcoin’s gains throughout the year are concentrated in these two months. If the cycle law takes effect, it is not impossible to refresh the historical peak before June.” Data shows that Bitcoin prices have fallen by about 30% since hitting $76,000 in mid-January. This correction is consistent with the typical correction trend in a bull market. Peterson believes that the current weakness is only temporary. His model shows that the average time for Bitcoin prices to be below the trend line is only 4 months, while the target price on June 1 corresponding to the “red dotted trend line” has pointed to $126,000.
Another factor supporting this optimistic expectation comes from changes in market structure. Peterson pointed out that after Bitcoin prices hit bottom in 2020, its “lowest price forward model” continued to set a lower price limit, and the newly established $69,000 support level this year may become the starting point for the bulls’ counterattack. At the same time, analysts at the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex revealed to the media that the recent downturn in Bitcoin prices is more inclined to “market wash” rather than a signal of the end of the bull market. This view coincides with the observations of many traders-well-known analyst Rekt Capital has calculated that Bitcoin has experienced five “deep corrections” in the current cycle since 2023, but each time ended with regaining lost ground.
Despite the increase in short-term volatility, market consensus has gradually gathered: Bitcoin price corrections are essentially part of the bull market process. If the seasonal upward momentum can be triggered as expected in April, a 50% rebound may push the price of Bitcoin above the previous high of $109,000 and pave the way for a bigger breakthrough in June. With the continued inflow of institutional funds and the increasing uncertainty in the macro environment, whether Bitcoin can write a new chapter before the arrival of midsummer has become the focus of investors.
