Although Solana’s price has been under pressure recently, its native token SOL still shows signs of potential rebound. Since falling to a low of $125 on February 28, SOL has rebounded 17% and is currently hovering around $145, more than 50% lower than its all-time high of $295 on January 19. However, market analysis points out that if the four core problems are improved, Solana’s price may be expected to break through resistance and hit the $180 mark again.
The current low price of Solana is closely related to the decline in the activity of the entire chain ecosystem. Data shows that in the past four weeks, Solana’s network fees have plummeted by 73%, and the number of on-chain application users has dropped sharply – the number of active addresses of its top liquidity pledge protocol Jito has shrunk by 56% in 30 days, the number of users of NFT platform Magic Eden has decreased by 38%, and the number of users of the lending protocol Save has lost 42% in the same period. In contrast, the active addresses of Ethereum Layer 2 network Base have only dropped slightly by 2%, highlighting that Solana’s ecological fatigue is not only due to the bursting of the meme coin bubble, but also that deeper problems need to be solved.
The quiet leveraged market further constrains Solana’s price momentum. CoinGlass data shows that the funding rate of SOL perpetual contracts has been negative for three consecutive days, and the short-dominated pattern has kept the average monthly funding cost at a low level of 0.9%. Although this value does not pose a serious threat, the lack of interest of leveraged buyers reflects the lack of market confidence in the context of SOL’s 52% retracement from its historical high. However, if US regulators unexpectedly approve the Solana spot ETF, it may trigger short-covering and drive prices to rebound.
At the same time, the manipulation of MEV (maximum extractable value) robots is eroding Solana’s price fundamentals. Research institution Threading on the Edge reported that about 95% of Solana’s network fees are contributed by 1.3% of “predatory traders”, among which market makers Wintermute and MEV robots manipulated the price of meme coins through strategies such as sandwich attacks, resulting in the loss of the interests of ordinary users. If this ecological imbalance continues, it may weaken the market’s recognition of the long-term value of SOL.
It is worth noting that the lack of layout of Trump-related project World Liberty Financial (WLFI) has become a potential obstacle for Solana’s price to break through the $180 resistance. Although Trump-themed meme coin TRUMP has been issued on Solana, WLFI’s disclosed investment portfolio includes tokens such as Ethereum and TRON, but no SOL holdings are seen. If the project includes Solana in its strategic configuration in the future, it may inject a shot in the arm for the price.
Overall, whether Solana’s price can regain its upward momentum depends on the resonance of four major variables: on-chain ecological restoration, leverage demand recovery, MEV chaos governance, and the introduction of external capital. As market sentiment gradually recovers, investors are paying close attention to the change signals in these key areas to capture the start time of the next round of SOL market.
