The blockchain network Solana has recently attracted market attention due to extreme fluctuations in stablecoin trading volume. According to data provided by global payment infrastructure platform Mercuryo to Cointelegraph, Tether (USDT) trading volume on the Solana network surged by 137% in the last week of February, following a 61% plunge in the previous week. Such dramatic swings not only reveal the complex sentiment of investors toward Solana stablecoins but also raise concerns that the native token SOL may face greater price volatility risks. Petr Kozyakov, co-founder and CEO of Mercuryo, noted that the abnormal trading activity of Solana stablecoins could serve as an “early warning sign of price instability,” while emphasizing that the network’s high performance and ecosystem vitality remain the core pillars of its long-term value.
Roller Coaster Ride for Solana Stablecoin Trading
As one of the core assets of the Solana ecosystem, the liquidity changes of USDT on the network directly reflect market sentiment fluctuations. Data shows that Solana stablecoin trading volume dropped by 61% in the third week of February but rebounded sharply by 137% the following week, setting a new record for weekly trading volume. Kozyakov analyzed that this “roller coaster” volatility may be related to investors rapidly adjusting their positions—some traders may be seeking refuge in stablecoins amid market uncertainty, while others are attempting to capture opportunities in emerging assets within the Solana ecosystem. Notably, the extreme volatility in Solana stablecoin trading coincides with technical pattern changes in SOL’s price. Anonymous analyst “Trader Tardigrade” pointed out on March 19 that SOL’s Heikin Ashi hourly chart shows a “converging triangle” pattern, indicating a critical juncture for bullish and bearish forces, with a potential directional breakout in the coming weeks.
FTX Repayment Plan May Trigger SOL Selling Pressure
In addition to technical pressures, external events also pose significant risks. Kozyakov specifically mentioned that the creditor repayment plan of the bankrupt exchange FTX could have a dual impact on Solana stablecoins and SOL prices. According to the court-approved plan, FTX will initiate a new round of repayments on May 30, distributing assets worth 14.5billionto16.3 billion to creditors, including a substantial amount of previously locked SOL tokens. On March 4, wallets linked to FTX and Alameda Research unstaked 431millionworthofSOL,markingthelargestsingle−dayunlocksinceNovember2023.AlthoughthebankruptcycourthasimposedstrictweeklyliquidationlimitsonFTX(50 million in the first week and $100 million in subsequent weeks), market concerns remain that the gradual release of these tokens could create sustained selling pressure.
Ecosystem Prosperity Amid Risks
It is worth noting that the surge in Solana stablecoin trading volume is not an isolated phenomenon. Kozyakov pointed out that Solana’s high throughput and low transaction fees are attracting more decentralized exchanges (DEXs) to the network, with platforms like Jupiter and Raydium seeing significant increases in trading volume recently, even sparking discussions about “Meme coin frenzy diverting liquidity.” However, this ecosystem prosperity may also exacerbate price volatility—when large amounts of capital flow in or out rapidly through Solana stablecoins, the transmission of market sentiment becomes more sensitive. The Mercuryo report further noted that Solana’s “transport layer” has recently experienced extreme volatility, which typically indicates that high-frequency traders are leveraging technical features for arbitrage or hedging, indirectly amplifying price volatility.
Technical and Fundamental Tug-of-War
Facing multiple uncertainties, the market is delving deeper into the correlation between Solana stablecoins and the SOL token. On one hand, Solana’s technical advantages (such as processing thousands of transactions per second) make it an ideal choice for cross-border stablecoin settlements, with the large-scale migration of assets like USDT serving as tangible proof of ecosystem growth. On the other hand, short-term trading volatility in stablecoins may undermine investor confidence in SOL as a store of value. Kozyakov believes that Solana needs to balance ecosystem expansion with market stability at this stage: “When a blockchain simultaneously hosts massive stablecoin liquidity and high-risk asset trading, any localized fluctuation can trigger a chain reaction.”
Future Path: Seeking New Balance Amid Volatility
Looking ahead, the trading activity of Solana stablecoins may become a key indicator for observing market trends. If assets like USDT continue to accumulate on the Solana network, it could drive broader institutional adoption of its payment infrastructure. Conversely, a large-scale withdrawal of funds may expose the ecosystem’s fragility. Additionally, macro factors such as the execution pace of FTX’s repayment plan, changes in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, and capital flows in Bitcoin spot ETFs will intertwine with the micro-dynamics of Solana stablecoins. For investors, while enjoying the innovative dividends of the Solana ecosystem, it is crucial to remain vigilant about the potential risks in a highly volatile market—after all, in the world of cryptocurrencies, prosperity and crisis are often separated by a thin line.
