As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve convenes this week, the global cryptocurrency market is waiting with bated breath for monetary policy signals to be delivered. Although the price of Bitcoin has fallen by more than 20% in the past two months, once falling below the $60,000 mark, market sentiment has quietly changed recently. Many analysts pointed out that if the Federal Reserve releases dovish signals, coupled with the macroeconomic background of easing inflationary pressure, the price of Bitcoin is expected to start a new round of rebound, targeting the key psychological resistance level of $90,000.
The current weak trend of Bitcoin prices has caused market concerns about the failure of the four-year cycle theory. Since hitting an all-time high of $73,000 in March, the price of Bitcoin has continued to fluctuate downward, technically testing the $60,000 support level multiple times, with the daily relative strength index (RSI) even falling into the oversold range at one point. However, 10x Research CEO Markus Thielen stressed in a new report that this pullback is not the end of the bull run. “Technical indicators show that Bitcoin prices are already in the oversold area, and with the Fed’s possible policy adjustments, the market is expected to usher in a phased rebound.” He said in an interview with Cointelegraph, “Although this is not a fundamental turning point, we believe that Bitcoin prices will enter a wide range of fluctuations in the coming weeks and may rebound to around $90,000.”
The core logic supporting this prediction lies in the potential shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path. According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool, the market currently prices in a 99% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting. However, investors are more focused on Chair Jerome Powell’s hints about future rate cuts. In a March 17 analysis, 10x Research noted that Powell’s recent comments about “remaining on hold amid rising uncertainty among households and businesses” could boost confidence in risk assets. Particularly noteworthy is his downplaying of the inflationary impact of Trump’s tariffs, referencing the 2019 scenario where tariff-related inflation was temporary—a signal interpreted as the Fed maintaining policy flexibility.
Iliya Kalchev, an analyst at Nexo’s digital asset investment platform, further pointed out that market expectations of a tapering in quantitative tightening (QT) could serve as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s price breakout. “If the Fed hints at slowing or even ending QT, global liquidity conditions will significantly improve, which directly benefits risk assets like Bitcoin,” he told Cointelegraph. “If Chair Powell spreads his dovish wings, Bitcoin could take flight on renewed bullish momentum.” However, he warned that persistent inflation concerns or a reaffirmation of tight financial conditions, such as elevated interest rates, could limit upside potential.
The current macroeconomic environment presents a delicate balance of bullish and bearish factors. Bank of America’s latest survey shows that institutional investors reduced their exposure to U.S. equities by a record 40 percentage points between February and March, reflecting deep concerns about a potential recession. Such sentiment typically weighs on risk assets, but Bitcoin’s price action has shown signs of decoupling from traditional markets—on-chain data reveals that the number of “whale” addresses holding over 1,000 BTC increased by 3% in the past month, indicating that long-term holders are accumulating at lower prices. This structural shift suggests that if macro policy shifts align with improved market liquidity, Bitcoin’s price breaking through previous highs is not out of reach.
Of course, potential risks remain. While 10x Research’s model predicts Bitcoin could rebound to $90,000, analysts generally agree that this process will be accompanied by significant volatility. Any mention of “sticky inflation” or “delayed rate cuts” in the Fed’s policy statement could trigger short-term sell-offs. Additionally, policy uncertainties stemming from the U.S. election cycle, the diversion of market funds due to surging stablecoin supplies, and fluctuations in Bitcoin spot ETF inflows will all influence price trajectories.
From a technical analysis perspective, if the price of Bitcoin can hold the support level of $68,000 in the next two weeks, it is expected to form a “double bottom” pattern, opening a technical window for hitting $75,000 or even $90,000. However, if the macroeconomic data deteriorates beyond expectations, leading to a rise in risk aversion in the market, prices may fall again to the range of $58,000 to $60,000. This bull-bear tug-of-war situation is expected to continue until the end of the second quarter, until the Federal Reserve’s policy path and inflation data provide clearer guidance.
Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin’s price often experiences explosive growth 12-18 months after a halving event, and the current cycle closely resembles the technical setup of 2016. Despite heightened short-term volatility, fundamental signals such as MicroStrategy’s continued accumulation and record-high institutional custody levels continue to support the long-term bullish thesis. For investors, a breakout above $90,000, driven by a combination of Fed policy shifts and improving market sentiment, may mark the beginning of a new phase of value reassessment for Bitcoin.
