On April 9, the price of Bitcoin rebounded rapidly from the recent low of $74,300, reaching a high of $83,565. This rebound trend was mainly due to the decision of US President Trump to suspend the imposition of tariffs. However, despite the positive stimulus to market sentiment, the price of Bitcoin encountered strong resistance at $83,500 and quickly retreated to around $81,000.
It should be noted that Trump’s decision to suspend tariffs did not include Chinese goods. On the contrary, he would impose tariffs on imports from China to 125%. This inconsistent signal triggered a sharp fluctuation in risky assets, and investor sentiment fell again after a brief turn for the better. As a result, the price of Bitcoin once again briefly fell below $80,000.
China then announced countermeasures and imposed an 84% tariff on U.S. imports from April 10. Market observers said that if China and the United States fail to reach a preliminary agreement on tariffs within 90 days, the tariff war may escalate again, which will hit risk markets again and Bitcoin prices will fall rapidly again. Just as Bitcoin prices quickly fell below $80,000 in the previous round, if a settlement is not reached, Bitcoin may break a new short-term price low. The high correlation between the crypto market and technology stocks also reflects the market’s vulnerability in turbulent times.
The high risk of macroeconomics has intensified, and the risks of inflation and recession are also increasing day by day, which has once again affected the future direction of Bitcoin prices. Investors are highly vigilant about the possibility of central banks in major countries raising interest rates or tightening monetary policy, and such tightening measures often weaken the market’s interest in high-risk assets. As Bitcoin prices are still fluctuating between $80,000 and $90,000, any sudden economic policies will have a heavy impact on the future direction of the crypto market.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin prices are in a critical support area. Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin has lost its 111-day and 200-day moving averages, which are at $93,000 and $87,000, respectively. The current 365-day moving average of $76,000 has become the last line of defense to prevent Bitcoin prices from falling further. If this level cannot be maintained, Bitcoin may usher in a new round of downward trend. If it can regain its footing at $93,000, it may become an important signal for a rebound.
Analysts warn that if Bitcoin prices cannot stay above $80,000, market confidence will be hit hard and cause its price to fall further. Glassnode pointed out that the price range of $65,000 to $71,000 is a key support band where multiple on-chain models converge, and if market selling pressure intensifies, this range may become the next important line of defense. If it falls below the 365-day exponential moving average, the price of Bitcoin could test the realized price of $71,000 or even hit the market’s long-term average of $65,000. Market participants are currently closely watching macro factors and technical levels to determine whether the price of Bitcoin will regain strength or continue to fall.
