On April 7, the price of Bitcoin plummeted to a four-month low of $74,500. The main reason for the plunge in the price of Bitcoin was that the impact of Trump’s tariff policy was intensifying and the uncertainty in the global financial market continued to rise. In particular, Trump’s speech last weekend firmly promoting the tariff policy caused the global stock market to evaporate $9.5 trillion in market value. The crypto market was also hit hard, and traders turned to safer assets for risk aversion.
After Trump’s speech, market concerns about the possibility of a recession in the US economy continued to intensify, which further tensed market sentiment, investors began to sell high-risk assets, and Bitcoin was also under pressure. As of now, Bitcoin is testing the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), a key technical support level, which is currently around $77,500. Historically, this support level is often regarded as the dividing line between bulls and bears, so it has attracted much attention.
Analyst Ted Pillows and other market observers point out that to avoid further declines, Bitcoin prices must regain the 50-week EMA. If it fails to regain this level, Bitcoin may fall to the $69,000 to $70,000 range, which was the high point of the 2021 cycle. But if the decline continues, BTC prices may even hit the cycle low of $67,000, which is the average purchase price of Strategy CEO Michael Saylor and is of great reference significance to market participants.
Despite the obvious downward trend in Bitcoin prices, there are still signs that Bitcoin may regain support. Data from on-chain analysis company Glassnode shows that about 50,000 Bitcoins are concentrated in the price range around $74,000, and these Bitcoins have not moved since March 10, indicating that holders are confident. Overall, there are about 175,000 BTC distributed between $74,000 and $70,000, which constitutes a solid support band.
However, if this support fails and the price of Bitcoin cannot regain the 50-week EMA, the next potential bottom may be around $50,000. This price is consistent with the 200-week EMA, and this long-term technical indicator has played a key support role in many major pullbacks in Bitcoin’s history.
