As the cryptocurrency market enters a critical cycle in 2024, Ethereum’s price trajectory is raising deep concerns within the industry. As the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, the persistent weakness of the ETH/BTC trading pair has formed a structural dilemma. Multiple technical indicators and on-chain data point to a harsh reality—Ethereum’s price may continue to face downward pressure over the next 18 months, with the risk of another 15% drop against Bitcoin.
From a technical perspective, Ethereum’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 3-day chart has remained below the oversold threshold of 30 for several months. Although traditional theory suggests this signals a potential rebound, historical data reveals a troubling pattern: since mid-2024, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has triggered four consecutive declines ranging from 13% to 25% in oversold territory. This “oversold trap” phenomenon also appeared in the third quarter of 2023, and the current downward trajectory of the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) shows a striking similarity to the market structure at that time. X platform analyst CarpeNoctom specifically noted that Ethereum’s price has consistently failed to form a bullish divergence on the weekly chart—where prices hit new lows while the RSI fails to rise—further reinforcing market pessimism.
When we shift our focus to capital flows, Ethereum’s price weakness becomes even more alarming. U.S. spot ETH ETFs saw a net outflow of 9.8% in March, reducing assets under management to $2.54 billion, in stark contrast to Bitcoin ETFs, which experienced only a 2.35% outflow during the same period. More concerning is the on-chain data showing a continued decline in Ethereum mainnet activity—daily median gas consumption dropped to 1.12 Gwei in March, a staggering 98% decrease from the same period last year. Data analytics platform Nansen bluntly stated in its latest report: “Despite Ethereum’s price rallying again at the end of 2024, mainnet activity metrics have not fully recovered, with a significant portion of transaction activity shifting to Solana and Layer 2 networks.” This ecosystem migration not only weakens ETH’s value proposition as “digital oil” but also subjects Ethereum’s price to ongoing valuation pressure from emerging public chains.
In the derivatives market, Ethereum’s weakness is equally evident. According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin futures trading volume has rebounded by 32% from its February low, reaching 57 billionon March18,84,000 to set a new all-time high, Ethereum’s price has consistently failed to surpass the key resistance level of $2,100, a relative weakness that stands out among major crypto assets.
Faced with multiple bearish factors, technical analysts have provided more specific downside predictions. On the daily chart, the ETH/BTC exchange rate is forming a classic bearish pennant pattern, which typically signals a secondary breakdown after a consolidation phase. If the price effectively breaks below the pennant’s lower support, technical measurement rules suggest that Ethereum’s price against Bitcoin could drop to 0.01968 BTC in April, a 15% decline from current levels. This prediction aligns with Standard Chartered’s recent move to slash its 2025 ETH price target from 8,000to4,000, reflecting a systemic revision of traditional financial institutions’ expectations for Ethereum’s price.
Of course, the market always holds the potential for reversal. If Ethereum’s price can break above the pennant’s upper resistance and convert the 50-day EMA into support, the current bearish structure may be invalidated. However, given the diminishing narrative benefits from Ethereum network upgrades and the lingering regulatory uncertainty over ETH’s security status, most analysts believe such a reversal would require a fundamental breakthrough beyond expectations. For long-term holders, the key question may be whether Ethereum’s price can regain its value anchor in the Layer 2 competition as market attention continues to shift toward Bitcoin spot ETFs and the Solana ecosystem boom. This will be the critical factor determining whether Ethereum can break free from its “curse.”
